* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/13/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 62 63 62 56 50 45 40 33 25 23 22 20 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 62 62 63 62 56 50 45 40 33 25 23 22 20 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 65 65 59 49 40 34 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 3 13 16 17 17 12 16 21 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -7 -6 -2 8 -1 0 -2 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 311 4 9 2 10 343 314 303 318 342 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.1 25.4 24.8 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 136 136 135 131 126 122 115 109 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 30 29 31 35 39 41 45 44 41 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 19 19 17 16 15 14 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -24 -35 -21 -12 -29 -48 -74 -79 -101 -116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -21 -6 5 8 -10 -15 -18 -8 -12 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 4 2 1 9 4 2 2 4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 778 829 880 924 967 1046 1128 1233 1331 1423 1528 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.6 30.1 30.5 30.9 31.6 32.3 33.2 34.0 34.7 35.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 157.9 158.2 158.4 158.5 158.6 158.4 158.0 157.5 156.9 156.1 155.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 5 6 6 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -8. -13. -14. -15. -17. -19. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 2. -4. -10. -15. -20. -27. -35. -37. -38. -40. -42. -45. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.1 157.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/13/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 573.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/13/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##