* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/11/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 68 65 63 58 59 58 51 40 31 24 22 21 21 20 21 V (KT) LAND 75 72 68 65 63 58 59 58 51 40 31 24 22 21 21 20 21 V (KT) LGEM 75 73 70 67 63 58 55 53 50 43 35 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 22 20 22 23 19 12 9 26 15 14 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 1 -4 -1 0 -4 -6 -8 0 -6 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 223 235 240 228 230 196 39 38 42 30 15 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.5 26.9 26.9 26.7 25.9 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 119 120 120 119 121 126 131 131 129 121 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 4 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 43 44 44 40 36 33 30 33 38 41 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 21 21 20 19 20 19 17 14 11 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -58 -46 -41 -36 -28 -8 -18 -27 -47 -68 -98 -142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 8 -16 -5 10 -19 7 -29 7 -32 0 -23 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 5 5 3 4 5 1 2 2 2 0 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 569 598 633 657 679 708 733 770 842 953 1097 1264 1420 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.3 28.0 28.6 29.1 29.8 30.8 32.1 33.6 35.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.2 153.8 154.3 154.8 155.3 156.4 157.5 158.4 159.2 159.7 159.7 159.2 158.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 3 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -19. -21. -23. -24. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -12. -17. -16. -17. -24. -35. -44. -51. -53. -54. -54. -55. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 25.2 153.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/11/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 674.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/11/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##