* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/10/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 65 62 58 57 55 55 52 45 39 34 31 30 31 31 31 V (KT) LAND 75 70 65 62 58 57 55 55 52 45 39 34 31 30 31 31 31 V (KT) LGEM 75 72 68 64 62 58 56 55 57 56 54 49 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 20 18 24 27 21 18 13 4 12 15 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 8 3 -1 -2 0 -3 -5 -6 -3 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 229 212 231 258 241 246 228 108 92 78 68 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.1 25.7 25.9 26.4 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.5 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 123 124 124 119 121 126 132 135 138 138 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 51 47 44 44 40 36 32 31 35 40 41 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 20 21 18 19 16 16 14 12 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -47 -47 -52 -48 -34 -32 -22 -23 -31 -44 -75 -111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 16 34 -19 -17 23 -20 -5 -31 -16 -16 2 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 8 6 3 1 0 3 -1 4 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 501 479 476 484 503 528 541 587 670 778 914 1048 1198 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.9 24.5 25.0 25.5 26.3 26.9 27.5 28.2 28.9 29.7 30.4 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.9 152.8 153.7 154.5 155.3 156.7 157.9 159.1 160.4 161.9 163.4 164.9 166.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 6 5 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -19. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -13. -17. -18. -20. -20. -23. -30. -36. -41. -44. -45. -44. -44. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 23.3 151.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/10/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 614.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.24 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/10/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##