* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/08/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 99 93 86 76 69 64 62 65 63 62 64 64 64 65 66 V (KT) LAND 105 104 99 93 86 76 69 64 62 65 63 62 64 64 64 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 105 102 96 88 81 71 65 61 59 59 59 60 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 2 5 6 12 10 11 12 12 8 12 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 1 0 0 -2 3 0 -1 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 346 270 268 269 256 237 210 228 239 221 216 244 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.2 24.9 24.6 24.7 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.6 26.6 26.3 26.6 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 117 113 110 112 122 124 126 130 130 126 129 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 53 53 53 57 57 56 53 50 44 41 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 26 25 25 25 24 24 23 25 24 23 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -4 -6 -9 -4 -9 -15 -33 -49 -38 -37 -20 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 50 41 56 24 11 17 8 20 20 -11 -9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 5 9 6 8 13 13 9 4 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1604 1447 1290 1132 976 681 445 323 255 240 245 355 495 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.0 20.1 21.2 22.3 23.2 23.9 24.4 24.8 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.7 141.2 142.6 144.0 145.5 148.3 150.9 153.3 155.6 157.9 159.9 161.8 163.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 4 1 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -20. -26. -33. -39. -43. -47. -50. -51. -52. -54. -57. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -6. -12. -19. -29. -36. -40. -43. -40. -42. -43. -41. -41. -41. -40. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 17.6 139.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/08/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 738.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.09 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/08/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##