* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/08/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 62 58 55 51 48 45 40 37 33 32 32 31 30 29 29 V (KT) LAND 70 67 62 57 54 51 47 44 40 37 33 32 32 30 30 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 70 68 58 61 59 56 53 50 50 51 51 51 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 27 36 36 30 28 27 21 22 14 19 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -6 -3 3 0 -4 -5 -1 -1 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 306 314 322 312 274 244 222 206 180 154 161 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.2 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 131 135 136 139 139 140 140 140 145 149 148 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.5 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.3 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 36 37 40 41 46 49 50 50 52 51 51 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 14 13 12 11 9 9 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 17 4 0 -2 -6 -11 -10 -19 -22 -38 -46 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -35 -25 -11 -1 4 -16 -12 -3 2 -3 -4 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 8 5 1 0 -3 -2 -3 3 1 7 1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 187 33 3 109 151 167 326 533 780 1085 1402 1750 2087 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.6 22.3 23.2 24.2 25.3 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.1 154.6 156.0 157.4 158.8 161.2 163.3 165.4 167.8 170.7 173.7 177.0 180.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 11 13 14 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 6 7 16 31 22 21 15 12 18 29 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. -21. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -12. -15. -19. -22. -25. -30. -33. -37. -38. -38. -39. -40. -41. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.0 153.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/08/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.31 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 672.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/08/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##