* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/06/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 86 94 101 108 116 117 115 107 103 94 83 69 66 65 65 64 V (KT) LAND 75 86 94 101 108 116 117 115 107 103 94 83 69 66 65 65 64 V (KT) LGEM 75 86 95 101 106 114 118 120 117 110 95 75 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 5 6 8 14 4 8 17 12 15 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 -4 5 7 3 6 -3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 341 327 356 348 330 336 281 243 226 206 196 187 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.3 28.8 29.1 29.6 28.4 26.3 23.9 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 148 145 148 153 156 162 150 129 104 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -50.9 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.1 -50.1 -49.1 -49.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 7 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 65 64 63 60 59 57 56 57 58 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 25 24 24 26 29 30 33 32 33 32 29 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 87 92 91 91 105 105 140 136 133 90 38 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 47 22 25 49 100 98 56 71 72 0 -9 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 3 4 2 2 9 23 32 21 16 8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2088 2180 2277 2368 2462 2608 2666 2692 2710 2757 2780 2426 2088 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.6 17.0 18.7 20.6 23.1 26.0 29.1 32.4 35.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 177.7 179.0 180.3 181.5 182.7 184.6 185.6 186.2 186.6 187.0 187.5 188.0 188.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 12 10 10 11 14 15 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 68 54 43 38 30 35 47 36 40 16 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 61.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 13. 15. 12. 8. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 11. 19. 26. 33. 41. 42. 40. 32. 28. 19. 8. -6. -9. -10. -10. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 13.1 177.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/06/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 70.7% 77.0% 64.9% 59.9% 62.5% 43.7% 28.9% 3.1% Bayesian: 72.8% 81.9% 71.1% 67.0% 72.8% 49.2% 7.4% 0.2% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/06/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##