* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/06/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 77 87 96 103 114 116 114 108 103 97 92 78 75 73 72 70 V (KT) LAND 65 77 87 96 103 114 116 114 108 103 97 92 78 75 73 72 70 V (KT) LGEM 65 77 87 95 102 113 118 118 115 113 108 97 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 10 10 5 5 10 7 1 9 5 14 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -2 0 -3 -3 0 2 0 3 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 21 357 6 32 39 324 335 287 231 218 236 201 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.3 29.7 28.1 26.1 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 148 148 146 148 153 159 163 147 126 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -50.6 -50.3 -49.7 -49.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.8 1.6 0.9 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 69 70 68 66 63 65 59 56 51 47 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 23 23 23 26 28 30 31 31 30 31 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 94 89 89 87 90 95 102 109 140 114 90 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 57 41 31 23 86 88 103 43 82 31 51 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 0 1 1 4 6 11 23 27 19 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1976 2073 2176 2272 2373 2542 2640 2715 2740 2750 2780 2782 2481 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.9 17.3 18.8 20.9 23.5 26.3 29.2 32.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 176.1 177.5 178.8 180.1 181.4 183.6 185.0 186.1 186.7 187.0 187.2 187.2 187.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 11 9 10 12 14 14 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 68 60 47 45 28 40 48 40 38 11 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 69.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 16. 14. 14. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 12. 22. 31. 38. 49. 51. 49. 43. 38. 32. 27. 13. 10. 8. 7. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 12.5 176.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/06/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 85.2% 91.5% 85.1% 83.2% 83.7% 75.0% 49.7% 15.9% Bayesian: 90.1% 95.1% 93.0% 91.0% 97.3% 89.3% 36.2% 0.6% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/06/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##