* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/06/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 52 52 48 41 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 52 52 48 41 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 44 42 36 31 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 55 61 65 63 63 81 85 76 73 71 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -10 -6 -3 -10 -14 -5 2 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 242 240 241 234 256 266 286 294 296 292 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 24.9 24.9 23.4 20.3 15.9 18.0 16.2 17.5 18.4 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 109 109 99 85 74 79 75 78 80 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 98 97 89 78 70 73 72 73 74 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 60 61 62 64 54 57 59 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 17 17 17 18 14 14 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 70 89 78 89 59 40 28 25 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 106 97 99 98 81 49 19 -15 -35 -22 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 31 21 30 25 -1 37 4 53 46 35 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 470 460 407 378 226 471 977 1555 1057 584 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.4 40.8 42.1 43.4 44.7 46.8 48.0 48.3 48.4 48.4 48.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.1 61.3 58.5 55.6 52.6 46.7 39.7 31.9 24.0 16.2 8.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 25 25 25 24 23 25 26 26 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 23 CX,CY: 19/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -5. -18. -36. -52. -64. -77. -89.-102.-119.-130.-136.-140. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 8. 6. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 7. 3. -4. -24. -41. -59. -77. -91.-104.-120.-131.-137.-141. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 39.4 64.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/06/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 61.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.21 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.58 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/06/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/06/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 52 52 48 41 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 47 49 49 45 38 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 43 39 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT