* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/06/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 76 80 84 87 86 81 77 74 72 70 66 66 66 67 69 V (KT) LAND 65 70 76 80 84 87 86 81 77 74 72 70 66 66 66 67 69 V (KT) LGEM 65 71 76 80 81 80 78 74 69 63 58 54 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 10 5 1 1 4 6 2 9 5 8 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 0 0 1 7 0 0 0 -2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 35 19 94 53 339 328 322 251 227 231 188 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.4 25.8 25.9 25.8 26.0 25.5 25.7 26.1 26.2 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 130 123 124 123 124 119 121 125 126 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 63 65 67 64 61 58 58 55 56 58 57 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 27 27 28 28 28 27 27 27 26 26 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 15 16 22 18 6 6 2 6 -3 -9 -36 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 49 54 55 51 24 8 -5 44 30 29 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -2 3 1 -1 -5 -3 5 11 11 18 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2012 2098 2191 2293 2182 1853 1537 1245 960 690 453 298 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.6 19.6 20.6 21.6 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.3 129.9 131.4 133.0 134.5 137.5 140.4 143.1 145.7 148.2 150.6 152.9 155.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 11 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 15. 19. 22. 21. 17. 12. 9. 7. 5. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.6 128.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/06/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.33 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 7.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 342.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.53 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.8% 36.3% 33.5% 26.7% 18.2% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.9% 27.0% 20.9% 17.6% 7.2% 13.6% 3.9% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.6% 5.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.8% 23.0% 18.8% 15.0% 8.5% 11.4% 1.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/06/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##