* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/06/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 79 72 68 65 61 56 47 41 37 35 34 35 36 38 40 43 V (KT) LAND 85 79 72 68 65 61 56 48 42 38 36 35 36 37 39 41 44 V (KT) LGEM 85 79 74 69 65 60 56 51 48 45 42 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 4 9 9 6 6 16 31 32 26 19 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -6 1 1 2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 338 14 23 10 322 286 320 300 300 316 336 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.2 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.6 27.1 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 124 124 125 128 131 136 141 142 141 142 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 44 42 41 39 38 42 47 54 51 53 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 19 19 17 15 12 11 10 10 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 52 48 44 44 23 15 -3 1 5 1 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 -26 -39 -47 -28 -20 -28 8 21 -16 -38 -7 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 15 16 18 17 5 8 1 -3 -6 -6 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1353 1189 1025 851 677 344 20 69 122 266 492 697 913 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.8 19.5 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.5 21.7 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.3 143.8 145.3 146.9 148.5 151.6 154.6 157.3 160.0 162.7 165.0 167.0 169.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 16 15 15 14 13 13 12 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 1 5 16 26 17 15 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. -22. -23. -24. -25. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -12. -15. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -17. -20. -24. -29. -38. -44. -48. -50. -51. -50. -49. -47. -45. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.8 142.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/06/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.01 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 729.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.10 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/06/14 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##