* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/06/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 67 76 84 98 105 106 103 100 97 91 84 81 78 76 75 V (KT) LAND 50 58 67 76 84 98 105 106 103 100 97 91 84 81 78 76 75 V (KT) LGEM 50 57 64 71 78 94 107 114 113 110 106 99 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 8 9 8 7 8 11 11 13 13 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -1 0 -2 0 -2 -4 0 6 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 85 42 9 28 45 9 352 279 233 215 208 216 191 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.4 29.0 29.4 29.5 26.9 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 148 149 146 145 148 155 160 161 134 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.0 -51.5 -50.8 -51.2 -50.3 -50.4 -49.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.2 0.8 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 71 72 69 69 67 64 61 59 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 20 21 22 23 26 28 30 31 32 31 31 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 110 102 96 97 96 95 101 99 116 119 118 94 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 84 78 50 42 48 62 108 100 67 74 94 31 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 1 5 9 21 23 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1896 1984 2080 2178 2282 2454 2562 2632 2680 2728 2760 2794 2667 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.2 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.8 16.2 17.6 19.5 22.0 24.6 27.5 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 174.6 176.0 177.3 178.7 180.0 182.3 183.9 185.0 185.9 186.7 187.1 187.2 187.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 10 12 13 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 49 64 62 52 44 28 43 41 41 32 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. 17. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 17. 14. 13. 12. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 11. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 26. 34. 48. 55. 56. 53. 50. 47. 41. 34. 31. 28. 26. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 11.7 174.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/06/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 63.0% 81.8% 68.6% 60.2% 56.7% 49.9% 21.9% 24.8% Bayesian: 53.0% 94.6% 91.2% 86.9% 72.4% 94.7% 81.0% 29.5% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/06/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##