* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/06/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 74 66 60 56 52 50 43 39 37 36 37 39 41 43 45 49 V (KT) LAND 85 74 66 60 56 52 50 44 40 38 37 38 40 42 44 46 50 V (KT) LGEM 85 75 68 62 58 52 48 40 41 39 38 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 5 5 9 16 15 22 21 26 22 18 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 3 0 -1 1 0 1 2 0 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 220 254 348 3 320 297 298 298 286 262 235 198 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.1 25.7 25.9 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.5 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 126 122 124 123 129 134 138 139 142 140 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 45 42 43 39 41 41 42 48 54 54 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 23 23 21 19 18 14 13 12 12 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 48 47 50 51 38 22 11 8 8 4 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -14 -40 -54 -48 -11 -34 -41 1 5 7 -6 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 13 15 22 20 7 10 5 -4 -2 -8 -6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1503 1355 1208 1034 860 513 168 21 106 142 409 688 977 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.3 21.6 21.6 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.9 142.3 143.6 145.2 146.8 150.0 153.2 156.1 158.9 161.5 164.2 166.9 169.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 16 16 16 15 14 13 13 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 2 9 23 21 18 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -21. -22. -24. -24. -25. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -9. -7. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -14. -18. -19. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -19. -25. -29. -33. -35. -42. -46. -48. -49. -48. -46. -44. -42. -40. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.6 140.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/06/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -32.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.01 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 696.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.13 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.10 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/06/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##