* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/06/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 48 56 65 73 88 97 102 103 101 97 95 89 87 86 85 84 V (KT) LAND 40 48 56 65 73 88 97 102 103 101 97 95 89 87 86 85 84 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 52 59 67 85 102 115 118 112 104 99 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 6 10 10 8 6 10 10 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -2 -1 -4 -2 0 2 1 1 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 82 68 34 33 53 359 293 260 239 214 200 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.1 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 150 152 151 151 154 153 156 157 156 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -50.4 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.9 1.6 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 70 71 68 63 61 59 56 56 52 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 19 20 21 24 27 31 32 32 31 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 112 110 106 100 101 98 97 108 124 132 130 98 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 82 65 48 34 46 96 82 96 56 71 11 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 1 4 11 22 19 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1833 1920 2015 2107 2205 2391 2539 2653 2723 2770 2782 2782 2802 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.9 13.4 14.4 15.7 17.2 18.9 21.0 23.1 25.2 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 173.6 175.0 176.4 177.8 179.1 181.5 183.5 185.1 186.2 187.0 187.3 187.3 187.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 14 13 12 11 10 10 11 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 44 55 68 63 55 37 45 49 43 37 28 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 23. 25. 26. 28. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 18. 20. 19. 17. 13. 11. 10. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 25. 33. 48. 57. 62. 63. 61. 57. 55. 49. 47. 46. 45. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.4 173.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/06/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 58.0% 82.0% 70.7% 60.6% 58.8% 54.3% 47.9% 45.1% Bayesian: 51.4% 94.5% 91.3% 84.7% 78.7% 95.4% 88.3% 31.6% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/06/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##