* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/05/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 88 81 76 73 68 64 59 55 50 49 47 46 49 51 53 56 V (KT) LAND 95 88 81 76 73 68 64 59 53 49 48 46 45 48 50 52 54 V (KT) LGEM 95 87 80 74 69 62 58 56 52 50 49 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 6 3 5 3 8 12 13 17 20 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 -1 -2 1 1 0 0 0 5 3 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 201 203 208 72 97 243 288 287 298 321 337 345 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.7 27.1 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 129 127 124 124 126 132 136 140 140 140 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.2 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 47 45 43 40 38 36 37 38 42 44 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 25 24 23 21 21 19 16 14 14 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 45 53 63 63 59 43 32 21 5 -1 0 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 13 0 -26 -54 -50 -19 -27 -11 -31 -29 -34 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 12 14 16 19 13 10 6 1 -6 -5 -10 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1617 1481 1345 1183 1020 673 334 6 91 112 283 513 759 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.3 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.5 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.9 141.2 142.4 143.9 145.4 148.6 151.7 154.8 157.7 160.4 162.9 165.2 167.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 15 15 16 15 15 13 13 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 5 22 22 18 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -22. -26. -30. -32. -34. -34. -35. -37. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -19. -22. -27. -31. -36. -40. -45. -46. -48. -49. -46. -44. -42. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 16.2 139.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/05/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 764.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.06 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/05/14 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 19 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##