* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/05/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 62 67 72 79 86 89 89 86 82 78 75 74 74 75 76 V (KT) LAND 50 55 62 67 72 79 86 89 89 86 82 78 75 74 74 75 76 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 61 66 70 77 82 83 82 77 72 67 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 9 11 10 12 8 9 8 7 7 11 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -5 -2 0 0 0 -1 3 3 4 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 52 40 34 24 23 44 68 34 9 19 345 324 341 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.2 27.7 27.3 27.2 27.2 26.9 27.0 26.7 26.1 26.4 26.1 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 147 142 138 137 137 134 135 132 126 130 126 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -51.3 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 64 64 68 69 71 70 66 63 63 60 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 25 26 26 27 30 29 30 29 28 27 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 39 37 37 35 30 39 33 20 15 17 15 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 64 64 63 71 33 88 30 33 -2 25 15 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -6 -11 -7 0 0 -3 -2 2 6 7 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1623 1709 1801 1890 1985 2153 2341 2091 1790 1494 1166 827 509 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.1 123.4 124.7 126.0 127.3 130.0 132.8 135.6 138.4 141.2 144.3 147.5 150.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 19 8 4 4 15 4 4 3 0 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. 11. 13. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 17. 22. 29. 36. 39. 39. 36. 33. 28. 25. 24. 24. 25. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.5 122.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/05/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.55 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 30.1% 25.3% 19.2% 13.8% 20.0% 17.6% 14.6% Logistic: 6.4% 18.3% 10.0% 6.1% 7.9% 6.3% 8.6% 5.1% Bayesian: 2.5% 13.9% 6.5% 2.5% 1.5% 2.4% 1.4% 0.1% Consensus: 7.7% 20.8% 13.9% 9.3% 7.7% 9.6% 9.2% 6.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/05/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##