* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/05/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 116 110 103 94 82 73 63 56 49 44 40 38 39 41 44 46 V (KT) LAND 120 116 110 103 94 82 73 63 56 49 43 40 37 39 41 43 45 V (KT) LGEM 120 114 106 97 90 77 68 62 59 55 51 48 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 10 11 9 14 6 8 8 14 20 18 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 3 0 -3 -3 -1 -4 2 4 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 299 258 214 177 167 135 224 279 291 277 290 306 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.0 26.0 25.8 26.0 26.6 27.1 27.3 27.7 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 126 126 124 125 124 126 132 137 138 142 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 50 49 46 41 37 34 35 36 39 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 25 26 24 23 21 19 17 16 13 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 20 35 58 61 79 69 54 47 29 4 -5 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 13 -14 -2 14 -22 -36 -22 -26 -13 -9 -25 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 2 10 12 12 16 10 8 7 -2 -6 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1861 1770 1679 1559 1438 1123 762 393 54 44 65 275 558 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.3 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.5 21.2 22.0 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.6 138.5 139.3 140.4 141.5 144.4 147.7 151.1 154.3 157.3 160.2 162.9 165.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 11 13 15 17 16 15 15 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 5 18 21 19 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -22. -32. -41. -48. -54. -59. -61. -62. -63. -64. -67. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -3. 0. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -4. -8. -12. -15. -18. -18. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -17. -26. -38. -47. -57. -64. -71. -76. -80. -82. -81. -79. -76. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 16.0 137.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/05/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 855.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/05/14 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 77 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##