* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/04/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 112 105 99 84 71 63 53 51 44 39 36 37 39 42 44 V (KT) LAND 115 115 112 105 99 84 71 63 53 51 44 39 36 37 39 42 44 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 108 100 93 80 69 61 57 54 52 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 4 5 11 7 13 12 11 12 11 20 19 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 2 1 -4 -7 -3 -3 1 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 335 285 247 262 255 199 192 162 227 261 269 266 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.9 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 128 126 126 124 124 122 124 132 132 133 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 56 53 51 50 46 41 38 36 34 34 34 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 25 25 25 24 22 21 19 19 17 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 8 17 31 44 67 79 64 47 32 7 -17 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 29 4 -6 -5 -6 -22 -24 -15 -10 -23 -17 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 1 2 5 12 16 13 10 7 1 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2013 1924 1834 1750 1666 1438 1141 822 483 158 26 22 188 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.7 17.4 18.2 19.1 20.1 21.2 22.2 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.1 137.0 137.8 138.6 139.4 141.5 144.2 147.1 150.2 153.4 156.4 159.1 161.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 12 14 15 15 16 14 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 7 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -28. -37. -45. -50. -55. -58. -58. -60. -61. -64. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -1. 1. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -10. -10. -13. -15. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -10. -16. -31. -44. -52. -62. -64. -71. -76. -79. -78. -76. -73. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.1 136.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/04/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 743.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.08 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/04/14 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 70 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##