* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/04/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 37 41 50 62 73 77 81 85 87 91 89 88 87 87 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 37 41 50 62 73 77 81 85 87 91 89 88 87 87 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 42 51 64 78 90 96 96 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 2 5 7 7 4 5 5 8 11 10 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -3 -4 -6 -6 -6 -4 -9 0 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 159 164 95 112 111 44 54 14 295 318 313 329 335 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.4 28.7 28.6 28.2 28.3 29.0 28.8 29.1 28.6 28.8 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 150 153 152 148 149 156 154 157 151 153 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 69 73 74 76 75 71 68 67 69 69 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 12 12 12 13 14 14 17 20 22 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 102 94 92 95 96 91 86 79 77 72 92 83 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 86 82 96 118 105 72 49 33 50 54 81 84 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -6 -3 0 -2 0 0 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1405 1446 1487 1535 1598 1755 1953 2180 2405 2627 2839 2707 2502 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.2 10.5 11.0 11.4 12.5 13.5 14.5 15.5 16.4 17.2 18.0 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 164.8 166.3 167.7 169.2 170.6 173.6 176.5 179.4 182.1 184.6 186.9 188.9 190.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 13 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 29 29 30 33 37 63 56 44 42 47 40 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 14. 17. 15. 14. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 20. 32. 43. 47. 51. 55. 57. 61. 59. 58. 57. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.8 164.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/04/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.8% 12.6% 10.4% 4.5% 3.4% 7.8% 17.6% 32.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 5.0% 25.9% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/04/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##