* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102014 08/04/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 49 55 67 77 85 91 95 96 94 92 90 88 88 89 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 49 55 67 77 85 91 95 96 94 92 90 88 88 89 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 44 50 55 67 77 82 81 80 79 77 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 12 10 14 15 16 10 12 6 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 0 3 0 -2 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 61 55 54 58 54 38 41 41 34 24 24 357 336 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.6 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.0 26.4 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 155 151 142 140 139 138 138 135 129 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -51.8 -52.3 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 62 62 63 64 68 72 77 77 75 72 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 17 19 22 25 27 28 30 30 30 31 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 27 35 48 53 48 34 33 29 17 11 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 15 42 92 101 93 73 109 66 46 45 20 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 1 0 -4 -4 -2 -4 -6 -7 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1324 1413 1509 1594 1676 1855 2038 2210 2370 2169 1882 1577 1270 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.7 118.9 120.1 121.3 122.5 125.0 127.5 130.0 132.5 135.1 137.8 140.7 143.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 28 28 34 30 7 7 16 6 6 5 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 25. 26. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 22. 21. 19. 17. 16. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 32. 42. 50. 56. 60. 61. 59. 57. 55. 53. 53. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.5 117.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 TEN 08/04/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.30 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.26 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 23.6% 16.0% 15.3% 0.0% 16.8% 16.0% 19.4% Logistic: 2.0% 8.7% 4.7% 2.2% 2.3% 4.5% 16.1% 20.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 5.7% Consensus: 3.9% 11.6% 6.9% 5.8% 0.8% 7.1% 11.0% 15.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 TEN 08/04/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##