* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/04/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 42 52 63 71 77 80 85 88 90 88 86 86 85 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 42 52 63 71 77 80 85 88 90 88 86 86 85 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 33 35 42 52 65 79 90 100 105 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 5 1 5 9 5 6 5 7 12 6 16 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -4 -4 -5 -6 -5 -7 -4 -6 -1 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 127 160 117 71 92 74 48 358 6 355 336 305 296 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.9 28.0 28.5 28.8 28.7 28.2 28.6 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.7 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 146 151 154 154 148 152 156 155 155 152 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.7 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 69 74 74 76 73 72 69 68 65 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 16 17 20 24 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 103 100 101 102 96 88 76 73 63 74 60 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 80 80 82 119 77 74 17 39 59 91 113 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 -4 -2 0 0 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1366 1441 1493 1528 1579 1720 1895 2099 2327 2544 2750 2832 2622 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.5 9.7 10.1 10.5 11.4 12.5 13.6 14.5 15.3 16.1 17.0 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 163.5 164.9 166.3 167.8 169.2 172.2 175.2 178.1 180.9 183.4 185.7 187.7 189.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 15 16 16 14 14 12 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 32 30 30 31 43 40 70 58 50 40 42 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. 36. 38. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 18. 16. 15. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 12. 22. 33. 41. 47. 51. 55. 58. 60. 58. 56. 56. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.2 163.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/04/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.9% 13.9% 9.1% 4.5% 2.8% 7.9% 13.7% 33.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 10.7% 5.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% 18.3% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/04/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##