* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/04/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 62 62 63 65 67 65 64 63 46 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 62 62 63 65 67 65 64 63 46 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 59 61 63 63 64 66 65 60 53 48 40 33 30 29 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 17 16 19 29 46 51 53 54 66 72 83 86 83 72 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 0 0 -3 -3 -3 0 -3 2 -4 -4 -11 -5 1 7 3 SHEAR DIR 342 333 320 308 292 253 244 235 239 242 250 256 260 265 262 251 233 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.2 27.5 27.3 26.9 24.1 23.9 18.2 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.0 15.2 15.5 16.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 151 142 133 131 127 103 101 78 71 71 71 71 71 72 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 143 138 129 119 116 113 91 89 72 68 67 67 67 67 67 68 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -55.1 -54.8 -53.6 -52.4 -50.3 -48.6 -47.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.7 -0.6 -0.1 -1.0 -0.2 0.9 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 8 7 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 54 55 60 62 61 58 55 57 60 63 64 58 58 54 53 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 12 14 18 18 23 29 25 21 19 17 22 26 850 MB ENV VOR -101 -74 -39 -44 -46 -16 18 76 103 125 92 77 88 134 160 185 183 200 MB DIV 54 64 70 79 39 46 67 135 73 85 80 6 23 1 5 -12 -3 700-850 TADV 7 18 17 13 22 23 -6 10 20 39 41 -3 -19 -28 -8 -13 -27 LAND (KM) 534 644 668 575 452 478 504 427 373 107 382 755 1119 1481 1222 849 510 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 27.1 28.7 30.4 32.1 35.1 37.9 40.6 43.2 45.8 47.6 48.6 49.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.5 73.6 73.6 73.2 72.8 70.5 66.7 62.1 57.3 52.6 47.7 42.7 37.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 17 17 19 22 22 21 20 18 17 16 16 17 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 69 29 25 14 7 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 15 CX,CY: -4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -11. -18. -24. -32. -42. -54. -68. -80. -89. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -0. 2. 5. 6. 12. 20. 13. 6. 3. 0. 5. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 10. 12. 10. 9. 8. -9. -29. -48. -63. -67. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.4 73.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.40 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 354.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 15.6% 9.9% 7.0% 6.1% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 8.6% 5.2% 6.0% 1.3% 4.0% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 8.1% 5.1% 4.3% 2.5% 4.1% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 60 62 62 63 65 67 65 64 63 46 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 56 58 58 59 61 63 61 60 59 42 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 53 54 56 58 56 55 54 37 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 46 48 50 48 47 46 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT