* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/04/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 50 60 69 75 78 79 82 86 85 84 83 82 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 50 60 69 75 78 79 82 86 85 84 83 82 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 33 35 41 49 61 75 88 95 100 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 4 4 9 10 6 5 11 13 11 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 -4 -5 -8 -7 -6 -7 -8 0 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 103 117 141 43 64 97 79 47 15 4 359 344 342 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.2 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.1 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 149 150 152 148 153 155 157 159 156 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 69 68 69 70 74 73 72 70 70 65 63 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 12 13 14 15 17 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 106 103 99 102 100 84 75 62 60 54 65 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 63 63 59 73 104 74 45 16 40 45 84 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 0 0 -4 -2 -2 -2 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1294 1354 1425 1483 1518 1628 1779 1970 2189 2418 2648 2876 2661 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.7 11.8 12.9 13.9 14.7 15.5 16.0 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 162.0 163.3 164.5 165.9 167.2 170.2 173.3 176.3 179.2 181.9 184.5 186.9 189.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 16 16 15 14 14 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 50 43 36 32 29 39 53 69 68 45 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 20. 30. 39. 45. 48. 49. 52. 56. 55. 54. 53. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.0 162.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/04/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.3% 14.2% 7.9% 3.8% 2.6% 5.7% 21.9% 45.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 7.4% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 1.5% 24.2% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/04/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##