* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/03/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 36 45 54 63 71 77 81 85 88 87 86 86 86 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 36 45 54 63 71 77 81 85 88 87 86 86 86 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 38 45 54 66 79 91 102 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 11 7 4 8 10 9 5 8 10 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 -6 -6 -5 -4 -7 -7 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 104 98 103 114 87 63 87 99 59 36 347 299 313 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 148 147 149 148 147 151 154 157 158 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 68 70 70 71 75 77 77 76 75 72 71 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 11 10 11 10 11 12 14 16 19 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 94 94 89 83 83 66 60 55 61 60 51 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 25 46 43 38 87 76 87 19 30 30 62 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1185 1243 1313 1373 1443 1512 1600 1724 1894 2097 2330 2580 2842 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.5 9.7 10.3 11.2 12.1 13.1 14.0 14.9 15.7 16.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 160.4 161.6 162.8 164.0 165.2 167.8 170.4 172.9 175.6 178.3 181.1 183.9 186.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 49 50 46 38 29 28 38 46 70 55 46 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 12. 11. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 15. 24. 33. 41. 47. 51. 55. 58. 57. 56. 56. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.3 160.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/03/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 1.9% 6.7% 24.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 7.5% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/03/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##