* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/03/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 48 54 59 65 67 65 62 63 49 31 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 48 54 59 65 67 65 62 63 49 31 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 45 47 51 56 58 55 52 48 42 36 34 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 19 18 17 16 23 40 47 56 58 59 61 57 52 36 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -1 1 -2 -2 -4 -1 3 -2 0 0 2 7 9 9 2 SHEAR DIR 340 337 337 338 329 295 261 252 240 236 237 247 261 264 265 275 254 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.7 27.4 27.1 26.1 24.4 24.0 19.9 16.7 18.5 17.0 17.7 18.8 19.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 155 155 149 132 129 118 104 102 83 75 79 76 77 79 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 145 143 136 118 115 105 92 90 76 71 73 71 71 72 73 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.7 -54.3 -54.2 -53.3 -52.9 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 1.3 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 56 59 58 58 62 62 62 60 63 65 65 66 67 68 63 53 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 15 18 20 24 31 29 27 24 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR -86 -88 -93 -69 -46 -45 -20 10 64 93 108 70 93 99 94 89 45 200 MB DIV 41 67 60 44 71 45 57 68 133 90 92 107 22 -3 -2 12 31 700-850 TADV 4 0 6 17 16 19 19 1 17 19 38 5 -13 -40 -41 9 -27 LAND (KM) 311 432 557 630 662 495 553 543 455 431 254 553 1016 1532 1248 889 582 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 24.2 25.7 27.3 28.8 32.0 34.9 37.8 40.4 42.6 44.6 46.3 47.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.7 73.2 73.7 73.7 73.7 72.3 69.7 66.1 61.9 57.2 51.8 45.8 39.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 15 16 18 19 20 21 21 22 23 23 22 21 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 52 51 65 30 25 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 16 CX,CY: -8/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 13. 11. 9. 6. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -8. -15. -25. -34. -43. -55. -63. -66. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 8. 9. 14. 25. 20. 15. 10. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 19. 26. 28. 25. 22. 23. 9. -9. -23. -26. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.7 72.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.41 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.66 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 13.0% 8.2% 5.6% 4.8% 7.6% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 11.3% 6.2% 7.1% 2.5% 6.9% 5.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 8.3% 4.9% 4.2% 2.4% 4.8% 4.6% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 46 48 54 59 65 67 65 62 63 49 31 17 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 45 51 56 62 64 62 59 60 46 28 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 40 46 51 57 59 57 54 55 41 23 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 38 43 49 51 49 46 47 33 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT