* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/03/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 45 49 55 61 66 70 71 64 54 42 28 25 23 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 43 44 48 54 61 65 70 70 63 53 41 27 25 23 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 41 42 44 47 51 56 62 64 59 49 40 36 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 25 18 13 15 17 13 12 17 31 44 51 55 63 81 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -5 -4 -3 -2 -3 -4 0 4 2 1 -5 -3 -11 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 311 325 328 327 338 328 294 248 246 244 252 267 280 284 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.3 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.6 24.4 18.9 16.0 16.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 148 149 152 155 155 143 127 124 124 124 105 80 74 74 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 153 145 144 144 145 142 129 113 109 110 109 93 74 70 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 7 5 4 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 56 57 56 60 60 63 65 62 63 63 64 60 61 65 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 14 17 16 15 13 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -39 -68 -89 -81 -87 -46 -46 -23 5 26 41 21 -17 -4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 8 6 30 45 36 63 18 61 77 42 26 -4 15 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 4 6 1 8 14 11 3 19 14 20 23 43 37 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 50 178 306 388 581 644 515 630 624 573 501 309 602 991 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 20.2 21.4 22.7 23.9 26.7 29.6 32.5 35.2 37.5 39.8 42.3 44.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.2 70.5 71.7 72.6 73.5 74.2 73.4 71.6 68.8 65.1 60.7 55.7 50.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 15 14 14 16 17 18 20 22 22 22 21 21 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 45 41 51 48 31 17 4 6 5 5 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 20 CX,CY: -15/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 18. 16. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -8. -15. -23. -34. -46. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 3. 7. 4. 2. -2. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 15. 21. 26. 30. 31. 24. 14. 2. -12. -14. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.0 69.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.37 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.69 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 12.6% 7.9% 5.7% 4.9% 7.9% 9.8% 10.8% Logistic: 1.2% 4.0% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 2.1% 5.4% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.6% 3.4% 2.2% 1.7% 3.4% 5.1% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 43 44 48 54 61 65 70 70 63 53 41 27 25 23 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 43 47 53 60 64 69 69 62 52 40 26 24 22 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 43 49 56 60 65 65 58 48 36 22 20 18 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 35 41 48 52 57 57 50 40 28 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT