* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/02/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 46 46 48 52 56 63 65 70 69 61 51 40 27 15 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 45 48 52 55 62 65 69 68 61 50 39 26 15 V (KT) LGEM 45 40 44 44 44 45 47 51 56 61 67 68 58 47 41 38 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 21 20 16 16 12 14 10 17 32 39 43 54 65 71 81 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -4 -5 -2 -3 -4 -4 0 1 1 2 0 -4 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 321 307 306 312 322 330 343 328 282 260 247 253 259 267 277 287 288 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.0 27.8 26.9 26.7 26.6 25.5 21.4 17.1 16.1 14.1 12.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 148 149 152 155 153 136 126 124 123 113 88 76 74 71 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 152 144 144 144 144 140 123 112 110 108 100 80 71 70 68 67 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 -1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 53 56 58 57 60 62 60 63 59 62 65 68 69 65 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 7 7 12 13 12 10 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -35 -47 -81 -95 -100 -61 -69 -33 -28 4 11 11 -8 -22 -31 4 200 MB DIV 13 23 13 6 24 27 64 17 44 30 67 44 34 32 24 31 11 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 3 1 4 12 8 14 -9 -7 11 35 84 112 119 120 LAND (KM) 48 0 39 167 289 491 650 573 571 673 607 560 379 430 793 1228 1393 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 19.0 20.1 21.3 22.5 25.1 28.0 31.0 33.8 36.3 38.6 40.9 43.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.6 69.0 70.4 71.5 72.6 73.8 73.6 72.3 69.9 66.4 62.3 57.6 52.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 16 16 15 14 15 17 18 19 20 22 21 22 21 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 61 45 46 42 48 66 29 10 4 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 19 CX,CY: -15/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 14. 11. 8. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -3. -8. -13. -21. -30. -39. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -7. -7. -2. -1. -3. -7. -7. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 18. 20. 25. 24. 16. 6. -5. -18. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.8 67.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.35 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 327.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.66 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 12.4% 7.8% 5.8% 4.9% 8.2% 10.4% 11.6% Logistic: 0.8% 3.6% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 2.4% 4.0% 4.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.4% 3.2% 2.2% 1.8% 3.5% 4.8% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/02/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 45 45 48 52 55 62 65 69 68 61 50 39 26 15 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 44 47 51 54 61 64 68 67 60 49 38 25 DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 44 48 51 58 61 65 64 57 46 35 22 DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 38 42 45 52 55 59 58 51 40 29 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT