* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 73 73 74 73 72 69 68 65 58 54 53 53 54 54 V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 73 73 74 73 72 69 68 65 58 54 53 53 54 54 V (KT) LGEM 70 73 74 75 74 73 69 66 64 60 55 49 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 15 9 10 10 5 2 7 4 9 12 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 2 0 -1 0 -1 -1 6 9 4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 11 21 29 45 48 75 42 273 251 265 221 157 179 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.4 26.1 26.1 25.7 26.1 26.0 26.0 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 134 133 127 124 123 119 124 123 124 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 63 60 60 60 56 57 56 56 57 50 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 26 26 28 28 27 26 27 26 23 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -7 -8 -3 6 3 4 -2 13 40 70 93 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 3 23 40 30 55 41 49 73 50 7 -25 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 -4 -2 1 3 6 12 17 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1967 2015 2066 2120 2177 2304 2136 1977 1829 1674 1482 1230 932 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.8 129.7 130.6 131.5 133.3 134.9 136.4 137.8 139.3 141.1 143.5 146.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 10 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 6 13 13 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. -5. -12. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.8 127.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/02/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.32 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.32 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 320.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 -2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.60 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 19.7% 17.9% 13.7% 9.7% 0.0% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 5.2% 1.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 8.4% 6.5% 4.9% 3.4% 0.1% 3.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##