* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/02/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 70 72 74 76 76 75 72 67 65 59 53 52 53 54 54 V (KT) LAND 65 68 70 72 74 76 76 75 72 67 65 59 53 52 53 54 54 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 71 72 73 73 72 70 67 62 57 51 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 15 13 9 10 5 1 7 10 5 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -1 1 0 -2 -2 2 0 11 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 359 8 26 30 49 30 104 179 213 257 213 203 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.1 26.4 26.5 26.0 25.6 26.1 25.5 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 136 135 134 127 127 122 118 124 119 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.2 -51.8 -51.0 -51.5 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 62 60 61 59 57 60 60 61 52 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 24 24 25 27 27 27 26 25 25 23 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 2 -7 -6 -3 1 -5 -6 -5 23 50 80 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 11 8 19 42 40 42 31 37 51 24 -15 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -2 -1 -4 -2 0 3 3 8 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1902 1956 2000 2043 2090 2207 2225 2055 1915 1777 1593 1368 1058 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.4 15.6 16.1 16.4 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.9 127.8 128.7 129.5 130.4 132.3 134.0 135.6 136.9 138.2 139.9 142.0 144.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 7 10 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 6 9 14 7 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. -2. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. 2. -0. -6. -12. -13. -12. -11. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.6 126.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/02/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.37 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.35 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.66 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 22.7% 20.2% 15.4% 11.0% 13.8% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 5.2% 1.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 9.4% 7.2% 5.4% 3.9% 4.8% 4.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/02/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##