* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/01/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 39 41 42 47 51 58 62 68 69 71 72 74 75 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 39 39 41 42 47 51 57 61 67 68 71 72 74 74 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 39 38 37 32 36 39 44 52 61 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 15 15 16 9 12 8 5 5 7 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 2 1 -1 -1 -3 -5 -1 -1 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 279 267 251 260 282 271 285 292 126 158 178 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.4 28.8 28.6 29.0 29.3 28.9 27.7 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 138 141 147 145 151 147 153 158 151 134 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 141 138 141 147 145 148 141 143 144 135 118 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 51 51 51 52 54 55 60 60 62 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 6 6 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -21 -21 -26 -22 -20 -40 -72 -102 -89 -73 -52 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -2 13 23 30 31 10 25 15 42 42 27 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -3 0 3 0 8 0 8 10 1 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 563 441 381 428 431 100 5 133 337 536 537 474 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.3 13.9 14.7 15.4 17.1 19.0 21.0 23.3 25.7 28.1 30.7 33.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.2 57.9 59.5 61.2 62.9 66.1 69.0 71.5 73.3 74.4 74.8 74.7 74.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 18 18 17 16 15 13 13 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 28 26 39 33 57 44 38 42 58 26 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. 28. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -12. -12. -13. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 7. 11. 18. 22. 28. 29. 31. 32. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.7 56.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/01/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.45 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.66 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.49 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 10.8% 7.0% 4.9% 4.0% 7.6% 10.6% 14.6% Logistic: 0.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.4% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.2% 2.6% 1.8% 1.4% 2.8% 4.0% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/01/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/01/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 39 39 41 42 47 51 57 61 67 68 71 72 74 74 18HR AGO 40 39 38 38 38 40 41 46 50 56 60 66 67 70 71 73 73 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 38 39 44 48 54 58 64 65 68 69 71 71 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 32 33 38 42 48 52 58 59 62 63 65 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT