* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/01/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 28 32 37 41 45 46 48 48 50 51 52 56 59 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 28 32 37 41 45 46 48 48 50 51 52 56 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 22 22 22 24 26 29 32 33 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 6 2 2 7 5 6 7 7 4 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -2 0 -6 -6 -4 -5 -4 -4 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 119 122 127 136 57 107 100 121 142 184 192 244 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 135 134 133 134 133 135 135 141 144 146 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 65 66 68 69 69 65 62 59 60 60 63 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 20 18 13 17 26 30 23 22 20 18 14 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 23 22 12 9 7 12 21 20 34 55 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 822 785 755 722 698 693 757 896 1083 1196 1346 1519 1713 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.5 12.7 13.0 13.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.2 151.9 152.6 153.4 154.2 156.1 158.3 160.8 163.3 165.9 168.6 171.2 173.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 10 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 15 11 8 9 17 9 5 6 27 28 44 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. 31. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 21. 23. 23. 25. 26. 27. 31. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 151.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/01/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 2.5% 1.4% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/01/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##