* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP082014 07/29/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 26 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 17 13 16 24 22 22 16 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 -3 -7 -5 0 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 199 212 241 295 321 325 336 319 313 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 23.4 22.8 22.6 22.4 21.8 22.0 22.1 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 96 90 87 84 77 79 80 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 54 52 48 48 41 37 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 6 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -34 -42 -57 -67 -72 -83 -80 -74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -22 -2 -15 -45 -36 -39 -28 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 10 10 5 0 4 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 752 793 846 894 947 1036 1128 1203 1237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.7 24.1 24.5 24.8 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.5 121.5 122.4 123.2 123.9 125.0 126.0 126.9 127.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 6 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -8. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -9. -14. -18. -19. -20. -21. -23. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -10. -16. -23. -30. -37. -42. -47. -51. -54. -58. -60. -64. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.2 120.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082014 HERNAN 07/29/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.29 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.06 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082014 HERNAN 07/29/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##