* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/28/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 37 45 48 50 50 49 47 46 44 44 46 46 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 37 45 48 50 50 49 47 46 44 44 46 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 22 22 23 26 29 31 32 31 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 12 8 3 3 7 7 4 5 10 13 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -4 -5 -5 -6 -5 -1 5 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 298 325 349 45 91 122 124 224 212 252 252 253 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 127 128 129 129 130 132 130 132 132 132 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.9 -52.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 67 70 69 73 68 65 62 59 60 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 14 16 15 14 15 14 15 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 11 21 19 17 28 42 45 36 37 40 41 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 41 59 84 80 64 43 32 31 12 47 45 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 -5 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1307 1216 1126 1042 960 822 709 605 498 420 390 427 502 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.8 145.7 146.6 147.4 148.2 149.6 150.9 152.2 153.6 155.0 156.5 157.9 159.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 3 2 2 3 4 5 5 3 6 12 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 27. 27. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 20. 23. 25. 25. 24. 22. 21. 19. 19. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 144.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/28/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/28/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##