* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP082014 07/27/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 54 56 56 52 47 40 32 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 54 56 56 52 47 40 32 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 51 52 50 45 38 32 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 9 8 10 11 13 11 9 19 33 36 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 4 8 8 6 -1 0 1 -7 -7 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 293 299 293 289 284 206 212 209 336 352 349 335 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.6 29.0 28.1 26.3 25.1 24.2 23.5 23.2 23.1 22.7 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 162 156 146 127 115 104 97 93 92 88 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -52.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 8 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 64 62 62 59 60 58 58 50 47 42 40 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 15 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -20 -27 -21 -26 -39 -44 -35 -41 -54 -58 -64 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 20 12 34 29 28 16 -15 22 -38 -36 -45 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 4 2 8 9 5 13 0 7 -1 3 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 530 566 605 551 534 587 659 771 857 979 1110 1244 1382 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.7 17.5 18.3 19.0 20.3 21.3 22.2 22.7 22.9 23.0 23.0 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.5 110.7 111.9 113.0 115.3 117.5 119.6 121.4 123.1 124.7 126.2 127.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 22 20 15 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. 7. 5. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -4. -8. -12. -12. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 14. 16. 16. 12. 7. 0. -8. -18. -25. -26. -26. -28. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.8 108.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082014 HERNAN 07/27/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 44.8% 30.2% 20.9% 15.0% 20.8% 17.7% 14.1% Logistic: 35.7% 54.9% 44.9% 31.7% 12.2% 32.7% 6.8% 4.2% Bayesian: 1.0% 27.6% 4.7% 1.5% 0.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 17.5% 42.5% 26.6% 18.0% 9.3% 18.3% 8.2% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082014 HERNAN 07/27/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##