* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082014 07/26/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 36 39 45 47 47 43 37 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 36 39 45 47 47 43 37 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 37 34 30 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 5 8 11 16 25 20 15 11 28 39 44 25 18 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 0 4 5 -2 0 1 0 -4 -9 -9 1 -1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 126 244 300 297 311 299 291 254 267 304 334 351 349 360 350 309 276 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.1 27.6 26.2 24.9 24.2 24.0 24.1 24.3 23.8 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 164 157 141 126 112 104 101 101 103 98 94 94 94 94 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 9 8 6 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 73 70 66 62 61 59 58 57 53 49 44 41 38 34 33 33 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 12 12 13 11 10 9 7 6 4 4 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -10 -10 -12 -22 -26 -40 -44 -48 -46 -61 -60 -63 -60 -54 -48 -42 200 MB DIV 19 13 17 9 4 26 29 12 -20 -18 -35 -43 -50 -24 -40 -37 -23 700-850 TADV 7 9 5 2 0 8 0 11 1 2 1 2 1 4 3 11 8 LAND (KM) 624 615 630 686 667 661 725 807 907 986 1072 1154 1216 1277 1338 1392 1455 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.2 18.6 19.7 20.7 21.4 21.8 22.0 22.0 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.0 108.2 109.4 110.7 112.0 114.4 116.7 118.8 120.6 122.2 123.5 124.5 125.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 13 11 10 8 7 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 52 35 23 22 20 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 21. 22. 22. 20. 18. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -17. -18. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 9. 15. 17. 17. 13. 7. 0. -7. -16. -20. -24. -27. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 107.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082014 EIGHT 07/26/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.88 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 24.2% 22.1% 16.5% 0.0% 17.1% 14.1% 12.8% Logistic: 8.2% 19.6% 11.5% 4.4% 1.8% 8.6% 11.4% 5.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 20.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 21.5% 11.7% 7.1% 0.7% 8.7% 8.5% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082014 EIGHT 07/26/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##