* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/25/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 43 43 38 39 39 37 37 39 41 41 41 42 44 45 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 43 43 38 39 39 37 37 39 41 41 41 42 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 45 44 40 37 33 30 29 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 22 20 16 11 14 15 12 17 14 11 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -1 3 4 3 -1 -4 -3 -5 -4 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 293 294 295 285 283 290 313 331 320 336 329 128 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.2 26.8 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 133 132 131 132 134 135 131 132 130 130 129 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 -51.6 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 66 65 64 64 64 62 60 59 62 66 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 16 14 16 14 13 12 12 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 21 15 19 24 26 25 17 15 3 9 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 57 65 66 58 18 -4 1 10 7 31 29 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -4 -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2262 2195 2128 2069 2010 1883 1731 1571 1393 1223 1042 884 721 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.0 135.7 136.3 136.9 137.4 138.6 140.0 141.5 143.2 144.9 146.7 148.4 150.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 5 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 4 4 3 4 8 11 7 9 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 16. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 3. 2. 1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. -2. -1. -1. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.3 135.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/25/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.55 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.02 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.70 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.8% 12.8% 9.5% 0.0% 10.2% 9.7% 8.0% Logistic: 1.1% 6.1% 1.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 6.7% 4.9% 3.4% 0.2% 3.5% 3.3% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/25/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##