* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022014 07/22/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 36 40 44 49 54 57 61 65 69 74 77 80 80 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 36 40 44 49 54 57 61 65 69 74 77 80 80 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 14 18 19 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 2 358 341 324 325 297 303 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 125 127 130 134 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 121 124 127 130 134 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 41 41 39 38 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -3 -6 -14 -18 -2 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 11 -6 -1 -5 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 -8 -4 -7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1011 950 906 867 860 593 466 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.4 14.1 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.2 48.7 50.1 51.6 53.2 56.7 60.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 15 16 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 6 16 29 30 30 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 30. 32. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 35. 39. 44. 47. 50. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 47.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022014 TWO 07/22/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.59 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.60 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.60 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.0% 8.4% 5.7% 4.8% 7.5% 8.6% 9.9% Logistic: 5.6% 14.6% 10.7% 4.6% 1.8% 5.5% 4.8% 6.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 3.5% 10.8% 6.9% 3.5% 2.2% 4.5% 4.5% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022014 TWO 07/22/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022014 TWO 07/22/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 34 36 40 44 49 54 57 61 65 69 74 77 80 80 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 34 38 42 47 52 55 59 63 67 72 75 78 78 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 33 37 42 47 50 54 58 62 67 70 73 73 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 30 35 40 43 47 51 55 60 63 66 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT