* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALI CP012014 07/18/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 37 34 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 37 34 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 36 33 26 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 9 15 22 28 32 42 48 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 0 -2 -4 -3 -4 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 213 257 253 257 277 276 265 253 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.4 25.6 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 125 120 119 119 117 119 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 66 66 65 64 56 54 53 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 13 12 8 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -17 -25 -24 -23 -46 -42 -51 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 35 28 6 -15 -23 7 26 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 4 6 5 2 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1575 1464 1354 1249 1145 925 708 501 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.4 15.1 15.7 16.3 17.4 18.2 18.7 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.3 142.1 142.9 143.7 144.5 146.3 148.2 150.1 152.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -13. -22. -27. -31. -34. -35. -35. -36. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -6. -13. -21. -32. -42. -47. -50. -51. -51. -50. -50. -50. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.7 141.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012014 WALI 07/18/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.19 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.6% 3.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012014 WALI 07/18/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##