* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062014 07/08/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 45 47 52 55 56 54 50 47 40 37 35 33 30 28 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 45 47 52 55 56 54 50 47 40 37 35 33 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 46 50 53 54 52 48 43 37 33 28 24 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 9 14 14 15 18 23 22 22 29 36 36 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -3 -6 -4 -6 -2 0 -2 -2 1 2 1 1 4 2 SHEAR DIR 353 350 360 13 11 344 310 313 319 319 296 276 259 282 299 296 274 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.3 27.5 26.9 26.2 26.3 25.7 25.4 25.3 25.6 26.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 149 150 151 154 149 140 134 126 127 121 118 117 120 125 123 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 75 75 69 67 62 62 62 61 57 55 46 46 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 24 22 19 17 10 -4 -16 -17 -28 -25 -28 -16 -37 -24 -28 -24 200 MB DIV 47 46 32 44 40 9 16 34 41 24 33 8 17 -4 -42 -32 -46 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -7 -7 -6 -3 -3 1 -2 1 1 4 2 4 4 4 1 LAND (KM) 1945 2001 2056 2107 2165 2308 2444 2319 2044 1787 1548 1314 1054 770 505 292 147 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.3 10.6 11.3 12.2 13.1 13.9 14.8 15.5 16.1 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.6 122.7 123.8 125.1 126.3 128.9 131.5 134.1 136.5 138.7 140.8 142.9 145.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 13 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 32 34 33 35 40 47 19 6 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 19. 20. 19. 18. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 16. 14. 10. 7. 0. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 9.4 121.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062014 FAUSTO 07/08/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.32 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 20.3% 19.8% 15.1% 11.0% 17.5% 15.8% 14.8% Logistic: 2.3% 12.2% 3.7% 1.8% 1.1% 2.5% 10.9% 14.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 13.8% 2.9% 0.6% 0.3% 1.5% 0.9% 0.6% Consensus: 4.4% 15.4% 8.8% 5.8% 4.1% 7.2% 9.2% 10.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062014 FAUSTO 07/08/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##