* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062014 07/08/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 49 54 57 58 56 51 45 39 36 33 32 30 29 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 49 54 57 58 56 51 45 39 36 33 32 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 46 50 52 50 47 41 35 30 26 22 18 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 12 10 12 13 16 16 20 23 29 24 35 28 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -3 -1 0 2 0 1 4 5 6 7 3 SHEAR DIR 342 341 341 345 349 328 315 324 322 322 309 293 303 309 311 291 267 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 29.0 28.4 27.1 27.1 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.7 25.7 26.2 26.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 153 153 157 150 136 136 127 125 124 121 121 126 124 126 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 74 72 74 72 73 69 65 64 61 61 56 51 45 45 43 48 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 10 9 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 29 24 24 16 11 1 -6 -12 -17 -25 -21 -22 -21 -28 -18 -44 200 MB DIV 49 49 49 38 52 60 8 30 47 10 11 -5 -1 -8 -24 -39 -18 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -8 -7 -3 -3 0 0 0 5 10 12 12 12 11 9 LAND (KM) 1844 1910 1981 2056 2127 2299 2486 2322 2027 1734 1447 1174 907 663 435 266 244 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.1 10.3 11.0 11.7 12.3 13.1 14.1 15.0 15.6 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.2 121.4 122.6 124.0 125.4 128.5 131.5 134.4 137.0 139.5 142.0 144.5 147.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 30 34 36 35 40 48 17 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 19. 22. 23. 21. 16. 10. 4. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.5 120.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062014 FAUSTO 07/08/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.32 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 28.1% 23.1% 17.1% 12.8% 20.3% 17.8% 16.6% Logistic: 20.5% 62.8% 32.0% 22.4% 13.4% 29.0% 34.4% 30.4% Bayesian: 2.8% 45.2% 15.8% 5.8% 1.5% 26.9% 12.1% 0.5% Consensus: 11.9% 45.3% 23.6% 15.1% 9.3% 25.4% 21.4% 15.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062014 FAUSTO 07/08/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##