* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/04/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 27 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 27 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 31 28 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 11 10 7 8 5 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 0 2 0 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 316 316 310 297 262 242 214 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.3 23.4 23.0 22.4 21.9 21.3 20.4 20.4 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 95 91 85 80 73 64 64 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 49 49 45 41 37 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 12 10 9 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 20 16 3 -18 -23 -36 -37 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -17 -11 -6 -5 -18 -5 -4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -3 -2 2 0 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 708 742 748 756 767 817 882 981 1045 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.2 24.0 24.8 25.4 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.3 118.9 119.5 120.1 120.7 122.0 123.2 124.5 125.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -10. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -15. -16. -15. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -28. -35. -44. -47. -50. -54. -57. -62. -65. -67. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.6 118.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/04/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.22 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/04/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##