* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/04/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 67 64 60 47 32 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 71 67 64 48 37 25 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 71 67 60 46 37 29 33 36 40 45 47 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 35 45 50 46 28 28 17 5 9 12 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 5 5 0 -2 2 3 1 0 3 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 200 198 205 200 179 167 172 157 147 240 273 273 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 22.4 17.8 13.9 13.6 16.0 11.4 8.3 7.5 6.9 3.5 9.0 9.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 93 77 70 70 73 68 66 65 64 64 65 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 85 72 68 67 68 66 65 64 63 N/A 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.0 -48.4 -47.2 -47.8 -48.5 -48.9 -48.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.9 2.5 3.6 4.5 5.2 3.1 3.1 1.1 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 52 50 46 40 48 57 64 62 67 66 65 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 30 33 39 40 33 25 24 22 18 17 11 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 57 85 125 129 135 190 208 197 175 121 124 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 88 59 25 55 77 56 32 49 27 17 1 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -24 -51 -48 -45 -53 -49 -34 -13 -20 -11 -9 -5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 208 159 139 59 -27 46 -30 132 443 743 1056 1315 1452 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.4 40.2 41.9 43.4 44.8 47.0 49.7 53.0 55.8 57.9 59.6 61.1 62.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.4 70.3 68.3 66.5 64.8 61.2 57.4 53.9 50.7 47.5 43.2 37.9 32.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 23 21 19 18 18 19 18 15 14 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 22 CX,CY: 16/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -12. -17. -23. -31. -39. -46. -50. -55. -59. -63. -64. -65. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -16. -15. -11. -10. -10. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. -16. -20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 7. 9. 4. -4. -6. -9. -16. -19. -28. -35. -34. -34. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -15. -28. -43. -51. -57. -63. -68. -79. -88. -93. -97.-100.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 38.4 72.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/04/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 356.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/04/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/04/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 71 67 64 48 37 25 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 70 67 51 40 28 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 68 52 41 29 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 49 38 26 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT