* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/04/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 80 74 69 57 41 30 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 83 80 74 69 40 29 27 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 84 81 73 64 42 34 32 34 37 41 45 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 28 37 45 52 42 36 25 12 3 11 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 2 4 -4 2 6 2 -4 -4 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 195 196 206 199 174 179 173 156 204 270 267 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.5 22.5 18.1 13.8 17.6 14.2 8.0 7.7 7.5 6.8 9.2 9.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 106 93 78 71 76 71 67 66 66 65 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 95 85 73 68 70 67 65 65 65 64 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.4 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -52.0 -51.5 -49.5 -47.8 -46.7 -47.2 -48.4 -48.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.7 2.1 3.4 4.5 5.5 3.6 2.4 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 51 47 44 43 54 62 63 62 64 61 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 30 32 36 37 29 27 26 22 18 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 38 58 80 107 107 152 187 165 145 87 70 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 62 68 56 39 24 55 23 30 35 13 -5 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -26 -29 -51 -39 -30 -52 -32 -33 -40 -14 -10 -18 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 138 201 153 123 49 -13 54 30 367 771 1139 1282 1359 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.8 38.5 40.2 41.9 43.6 46.3 48.9 51.8 54.7 57.4 59.8 61.9 63.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.4 72.4 70.4 68.5 66.6 63.0 59.3 55.2 50.9 46.2 41.7 37.4 33.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 23 23 22 20 18 19 19 19 18 16 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 20 CX,CY: 13/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -26. -36. -46. -55. -61. -66. -71. -75. -76. -77. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -13. -20. -22. -22. -20. -15. -12. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -15. -20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 4. 0. -1. -7. -15. -24. -28. -27. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -11. -16. -28. -44. -55. -61. -67. -75. -86. -92. -97.-101.-104.-109. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 36.8 74.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/04/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 480.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -1.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/04/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/04/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 7( 16) 3( 19) 0( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 83 80 74 69 40 29 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 81 75 70 41 30 28 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 75 70 41 30 28 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 70 41 30 28 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 37 26 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 83 74 68 65 54 43 41 35 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT