* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/04/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 24 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 10 12 11 9 8 5 6 10 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 324 323 322 311 314 285 245 238 222 209 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.7 23.6 23.7 23.9 23.7 22.6 21.3 20.6 20.2 20.1 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 96 97 100 98 87 73 65 61 60 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 54 51 47 42 41 35 31 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 14 13 11 8 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 51 45 44 30 10 -22 -22 -29 -35 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 19 22 6 -12 0 -19 -1 -5 -4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 4 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 656 663 675 697 723 742 769 826 896 976 1067 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.8 23.6 24.3 24.7 25.0 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.3 117.7 118.2 118.7 119.9 121.1 122.3 123.3 124.3 125.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -15. -17. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -10. -15. -21. -25. -32. -37. -42. -45. -48. -51. -55. -58. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.7 116.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/04/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.34 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/04/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##