* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 31 29 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 31 29 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 30 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 11 11 11 8 5 6 7 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -2 0 0 1 0 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 331 334 344 337 330 308 278 194 186 178 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.8 23.6 22.5 21.3 21.2 20.6 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 96 96 96 98 97 86 73 72 66 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 59 57 56 56 50 45 39 38 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 15 15 12 11 8 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 61 59 63 62 43 17 -2 -16 -22 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 11 13 13 9 -14 -10 -18 -12 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 643 648 655 669 686 742 779 851 944 1044 1166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.7 20.9 21.2 21.4 22.0 22.6 23.1 23.6 24.1 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.5 116.8 117.1 117.5 117.9 118.9 120.2 121.7 123.2 124.6 126.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -12. -15. -18. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -9. -15. -22. -29. -37. -44. -51. -53. -56. -59. -61. -63. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.5 116.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/03/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.29 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##