* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 88 92 95 94 92 86 65 46 37 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 82 88 92 95 94 92 68 43 32 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 82 89 93 93 86 69 45 36 34 35 37 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 11 9 11 30 45 44 38 31 19 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -4 0 1 3 0 5 4 8 12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 336 295 293 283 228 208 214 183 177 178 209 235 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.6 27.7 26.7 24.5 13.8 16.7 12.0 7.8 7.0 7.2 2.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 147 135 124 105 71 75 69 66 65 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 130 128 119 110 94 69 70 67 65 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -51.6 -51.4 -50.5 -49.6 -49.5 -49.0 -49.0 -48.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 1.8 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 12 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 49 51 50 52 51 46 44 48 52 65 72 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 25 26 27 30 37 41 33 26 25 17 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -11 7 12 40 54 124 116 117 149 159 184 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 40 45 42 51 62 49 33 60 28 45 42 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 3 6 -13 -23 -42 -45 -48 -32 -39 14 76 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 148 123 76 57 146 233 98 22 -10 106 381 675 794 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.8 33.8 35.1 36.3 39.4 42.7 46.0 49.2 52.5 55.6 58.6 61.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.7 77.9 77.1 75.6 74.2 70.2 66.0 62.0 58.0 54.2 51.7 50.5 49.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 15 17 20 22 22 21 21 19 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 18 13 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -8. -15. -22. -29. -34. -40. -44. -47. -49. -50. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -13. -14. -14. -16. -19. -22. -24. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 14. 20. 10. 0. -2. -13. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 17. 20. 19. 17. 11. -10. -29. -38. -56. -65. -69. -72. -74. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 31.8 78.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.72 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 575.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.33 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.18 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.4% 22.8% 17.9% 13.8% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 22.1% 32.2% 22.3% 14.5% 5.0% 5.9% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 49.9% 3.4% 1.4% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 30.5% 19.5% 13.9% 11.3% 4.5% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 11( 15) 17( 30) 16( 41) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 82 88 92 95 94 92 68 43 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 80 84 87 86 84 60 35 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 75 78 77 75 51 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 68 67 65 41 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 82 88 79 73 69 67 43 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS