* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/02/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 67 72 79 85 87 89 75 65 59 42 37 33 30 28 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 67 72 79 85 87 89 55 45 37 20 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 62 66 71 80 85 78 58 39 35 34 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 9 8 11 18 38 48 32 19 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -3 -4 -1 1 1 -1 0 16 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 323 319 332 333 305 264 205 213 205 196 239 257 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.2 28.3 27.5 25.6 21.3 14.5 15.8 12.8 9.1 8.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 142 139 142 133 114 87 70 72 68 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 121 119 122 117 101 79 67 68 66 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -52.0 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 11 11 13 8 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 51 49 49 50 49 41 47 53 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 22 24 28 32 39 33 29 30 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -36 -48 -34 -11 14 27 60 100 113 132 129 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 30 5 50 45 41 84 20 60 31 38 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 1 -11 -22 -51 -55 -16 23 50 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 177 225 241 192 161 89 288 205 58 -11 0 53 310 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.4 30.1 30.8 31.7 32.5 34.7 37.5 40.4 43.2 45.7 48.1 50.3 52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.1 78.9 78.7 78.1 77.6 75.4 72.0 68.2 64.9 62.3 59.0 55.1 51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 10 12 17 20 20 17 16 16 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 21 29 36 22 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -19. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -16. -20. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 24. 16. 11. 11. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 24. 30. 32. 34. 20. 10. 4. -13. -18. -22. -25. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 29.4 79.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.69 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 405.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.32 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 17.1% 11.0% 8.0% 7.2% 10.2% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 16.6% 11.1% 11.2% 3.5% 15.2% 4.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 11.8% 7.6% 6.6% 3.6% 8.5% 5.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 7( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 63 67 72 79 85 87 89 55 45 37 20 15 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 58 62 67 74 80 82 84 50 40 32 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 60 67 73 75 77 43 33 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 57 63 65 67 33 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT