* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/02/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 61 65 73 82 88 92 90 77 66 58 53 49 45 42 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 61 65 73 82 88 92 90 57 36 32 27 23 19 16 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 57 61 65 75 83 83 70 54 41 32 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 13 10 12 11 29 49 43 26 12 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -6 -5 -5 -1 5 0 0 5 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 360 356 328 335 353 300 240 210 223 203 197 205 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.2 27.5 25.0 14.3 14.2 13.4 8.0 7.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 137 140 139 141 133 108 71 70 69 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 115 118 119 123 117 96 68 67 66 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -52.8 -52.9 -51.6 -51.8 -50.4 -49.4 -49.7 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.7 2.0 3.2 3.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 14 15 12 12 13 7 6 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 49 50 49 51 50 48 48 42 38 48 53 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 19 20 22 26 30 37 40 35 30 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -38 -47 -53 -38 -8 46 47 107 135 169 161 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 23 16 22 38 50 65 54 42 26 43 17 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 2 17 -16 -14 -35 -32 -2 -3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 165 190 220 255 207 139 166 286 244 6 40 -70 179 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.4 30.0 30.7 31.4 33.3 35.8 38.7 41.6 44.5 47.0 49.1 51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.0 79.0 78.9 78.6 78.3 76.7 73.9 70.5 67.0 63.5 60.0 56.5 53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 10 14 18 20 20 18 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 19 20 28 35 21 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -6. -10. -11. -12. -15. -17. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 23. 28. 20. 13. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 32. 38. 42. 40. 27. 16. 8. 3. -1. -5. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 28.8 79.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.66 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 401.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 14.5% 9.6% 7.0% 6.1% 9.2% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 11.0% 6.1% 5.7% 2.1% 12.9% 10.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 9.0% 5.4% 4.3% 2.7% 7.4% 7.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 4( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 57 61 65 73 82 88 92 90 57 36 32 27 23 19 16 18HR AGO 50 49 53 57 61 69 78 84 88 86 53 32 28 23 19 15 DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 54 62 71 77 81 79 46 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 52 61 67 71 69 36 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT