* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 63 67 76 82 89 92 92 84 68 60 55 51 48 45 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 63 67 76 82 89 92 92 84 68 43 32 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 59 64 68 77 85 88 84 69 51 40 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 12 11 9 10 17 39 69 45 27 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -5 -5 -4 -3 2 3 -5 0 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 340 344 335 323 327 301 268 225 229 227 219 229 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.2 25.4 16.9 15.5 12.3 8.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 138 136 138 141 141 129 111 75 72 68 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 118 116 115 117 121 123 113 98 70 68 66 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -51.4 -50.4 -49.4 -49.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.7 1.4 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 14 15 13 14 9 7 2 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 47 47 47 47 50 50 48 44 37 42 46 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 18 19 23 24 27 31 37 38 31 30 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -35 -32 -40 -52 -16 4 20 52 108 165 149 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 16 28 25 23 57 34 71 57 55 27 26 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 -1 5 4 -1 -10 -21 6 21 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 127 143 155 198 242 195 111 234 302 226 96 98 -79 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.6 29.1 29.7 30.3 31.9 33.9 36.3 38.8 41.5 44.0 46.3 48.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.2 79.2 79.0 78.8 77.8 75.9 73.2 69.9 66.0 62.2 58.7 55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 8 11 15 17 19 20 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 25 21 19 23 34 18 6 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. -0. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -5. -12. -16. -18. -21. -23. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 17. 25. 26. 15. 13. 11. 10. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 26. 32. 39. 42. 42. 34. 18. 10. 5. 1. -2. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 28.1 79.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.67 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 414.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.50 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.14 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 14.9% 9.9% 7.3% 6.3% 9.5% 12.6% 9.6% Logistic: 2.4% 7.0% 3.5% 2.6% 0.8% 10.1% 14.2% 0.8% Bayesian: 8.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 7.7% 4.6% 3.3% 2.3% 6.7% 9.0% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 58 63 67 76 82 89 92 92 84 68 43 32 30 30 30 18HR AGO 50 49 53 58 62 71 77 84 87 87 79 63 38 27 25 25 25 12HR AGO 50 47 46 51 55 64 70 77 80 80 72 56 31 20 18 18 18 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 53 59 66 69 69 61 45 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT