* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/01/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 55 59 66 74 80 88 90 91 79 70 65 61 59 55 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 55 59 66 74 80 88 90 91 79 70 65 61 59 55 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 54 58 66 73 81 82 78 64 52 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 11 10 13 10 11 18 33 43 46 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -4 -1 -5 -4 -5 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 30 346 332 335 337 317 288 280 206 220 212 202 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.0 27.5 25.1 24.8 16.3 15.6 12.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 139 138 143 137 132 109 107 73 72 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 120 119 117 116 122 118 115 96 94 69 68 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -50.4 -49.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.8 3.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 11 14 12 12 8 7 2 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 48 50 52 52 56 56 55 50 47 43 42 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 16 19 20 22 27 31 37 35 34 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -32 -40 -31 -29 -40 -4 -1 17 44 106 164 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 -2 4 17 36 27 57 29 86 38 58 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 9 3 -12 -18 -40 -23 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 104 104 108 117 136 224 162 61 244 260 167 85 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.8 29.3 30.6 32.3 34.4 36.8 39.4 42.0 44.3 46.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.3 79.4 79.5 79.5 79.5 79.1 77.9 76.0 73.1 69.3 65.4 61.5 57.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 6 8 11 15 18 20 19 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 25 23 20 19 28 24 10 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. -3. -10. -15. -19. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 19. 27. 24. 22. 20. 18. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 15. 19. 26. 34. 40. 48. 50. 51. 39. 30. 25. 21. 19. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 27.7 79.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/01/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.73 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.45 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.13 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 16.7% 11.0% 8.0% 7.0% 9.7% 12.2% 12.2% Logistic: 8.1% 24.7% 13.8% 18.0% 10.4% 46.0% 45.5% 25.3% Bayesian: 8.8% 13.0% 3.2% 0.6% 0.0% 2.5% 1.2% 0.0% Consensus: 8.0% 18.1% 9.3% 8.9% 5.8% 19.4% 19.6% 12.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/01/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/01/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 51 55 59 66 74 80 88 90 91 79 70 65 61 59 55 18HR AGO 40 39 45 49 53 60 68 74 82 84 85 73 64 59 55 53 49 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 44 51 59 65 73 75 76 64 55 50 46 44 40 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 41 49 55 63 65 66 54 45 40 36 34 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT