* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012014 07/01/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 48 55 66 78 84 86 83 70 65 60 57 54 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 48 55 66 78 84 86 83 70 65 60 57 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 48 55 64 69 68 55 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 10 11 13 11 13 15 28 40 53 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -4 -2 -6 -4 -7 -4 2 0 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 10 15 351 333 336 320 354 295 249 217 229 217 204 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 26.9 25.1 22.9 16.4 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 141 139 138 138 141 126 109 94 73 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 120 119 118 117 117 117 121 110 96 84 69 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.1 -53.5 -52.5 -52.9 -51.9 -52.6 -51.9 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.0 1.5 2.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 13 12 11 15 12 12 6 5 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 52 49 50 50 53 53 55 54 52 48 46 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 18 18 21 26 30 34 37 34 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -28 -36 -43 -38 -31 -30 6 27 19 39 103 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 20 7 2 19 25 38 51 63 68 55 32 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 0 16 -9 -22 -10 -39 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 105 106 104 121 126 198 207 130 115 333 257 169 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.8 29.9 31.4 33.2 35.4 37.9 40.3 42.6 44.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.3 79.4 79.4 79.4 79.1 78.3 76.9 74.5 71.1 67.5 63.8 60.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 5 7 9 13 17 18 19 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 27 25 23 20 22 37 22 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 18. 18. 17. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. -2. -9. -17. -21. -24. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 22. 20. 18. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 25. 36. 48. 54. 56. 53. 40. 35. 30. 27. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.5 79.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ONE 07/01/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.70 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 10.8% 7.5% 5.0% 4.0% 7.0% 9.2% 12.5% Logistic: 3.4% 14.8% 7.1% 3.9% 2.3% 18.7% 30.8% 28.8% Bayesian: 1.3% 4.4% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 10.0% 5.3% 3.0% 2.1% 8.7% 13.5% 13.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ONE 07/01/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ONE 07/01/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 41 48 55 66 78 84 86 83 70 65 60 57 54 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 38 45 52 63 75 81 83 80 67 62 57 54 51 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 40 47 58 70 76 78 75 62 57 52 49 46 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 38 49 61 67 69 66 53 48 43 40 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT